Un Movilidad fiscal municipal en Colombia y la relación con su crecimiento económico. Un estudio de datos panel para el año 2012-2022.

Abstract

In this study of municipal fiscal mobility using panel data analysis, a balanced panel of 1,103 municipalities over 11 years were utilized, incorporating data on Municipal Value Added (and its sectoral composition). This allowed for longitudinal and comparative examinations with fixed effects control. The models revealed that economic activities such as primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors, alongside rural population growth, significantly influence municipal fiscal category mobility. Addressing issues of serial and contemporaneous autocorrelation in the fixed effects model indicated that observations for the same municipality are not independent over time or among themselves. To tackle these challenges, the Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) method was employed, adjusting the variance-covariance matrix and enhancing estimation accuracy by accounting for autocorrelation structure.

Despite the adjusted model showing reduced explanatory power, the findings suggest that at least one explanatory variable significantly impacts fiscal mobility. This underscores the pivotal role of economic activities as determinants for fiscal mobility and highlights the necessity for strategies promoting secondary sector-based economic development, diverging from our initial hypothesis which posited that municipalities undergoing the most category changes base their economic growth on the service sector.